“I’m going to wait to buy a home until... [insert excuse here].”
That’s often the talking point we hear from those least informed and least qualified to advise us on real estate decisions: our neighbors, coworkers around the water cooler, friends (who are still renting), and others on social media (which is never a good place for sound advice!).
The justifications are varied, but also loop in a continuous cycle through the years and decades.
“I’m going to wait to buy a house until prices drop.”
“I’m going to wait to buy a house until mortgage rates drop.”
Or my personal favorite…
“I’m going to wait to buy until the next huge wave of foreclosures.”
I understand the instinct to save money. No one wants a good deal more than me!
But that loop of waiting for pie-in-the-sky reasons is actually vastly counterproductive, leading many in the general public to buy high and sell low – not the opposite – when it comes to real estate. We see that over and over again.
So, let me dig a little into market data and actual case studies to show you why “endless waiting” probably isn’t a good strategy in 2023 (for either buyers or sellers).
First, let’s look at why waiting “until prices drop” is not a great strategy in Sacramento.
We don’t know where interest rates are going but the general consensus is that they will stay the same or even rise slightly through 2023 as the Fed raises their benchmark rate to fight inflation. So, waiting may actually cost you more from a mortgage standpoint.
How about waiting until home prices drop? If prices are 10% lower by the end of 2023 (as an example), then you’ll surely save 10% on your home purchase, right?
Not so fast. For instance, you may actually be paying far more if mortgage rates are just a tick higher, as I explained above.
But most importantly, think about how much more competition you’ll have as homebuyer if/when prices drop.
Instead of holding all of the leverage as a buyer and being able to offer a lower purchase price, you’ll probably have to offer full price – or higher if there’s a bidding war. Yes, remember those nasty bidding wars that drove asking prices up 10% or more in 2021 and early 2022? Those may be back as the competition swarms.
Waiting until there’s more competition also means you’ll have far less negotiating power when it comes to terms of the deal, such as asking the seller to pay a credit towards buying down your rate, repairs, and other amenities in the contract.
Without that seller credit towards buying down your rate (which will be much harder to get if/when prices drop and there are more buyers looking), the total interest you’re paying on the mortgage – the true cost of your home – will be much higher!
Remember, too, that everything in real estate is built on supply and demand. Right now, demand is low due to higher rates and affordability issues. But don’t expect any sort of sharp drop like we saw post 2008.
Listing inventory is still incredibly low in Sacramento, driving up demand. And we don’t expect the flood if interest from Bay Area buyers and investors to stop anytime soon, further bolstering demand in Sacramento.
Remember, too, that demand is ALWAYS strong in California. With a huge, diverse population that is always growing (no matter how many media headlines cry that so many people are leaving the state), California is a hot spot for population growth. That’s even more true in Sacramento, the seat of state government, redevelopment, and a burgeoning tech and medical business boom.
One more factor that almost NO ONE is talking about in the supply/demand equation is the explosion of institutional investors buying residential single-family homes.
Last year, something like 12% of all SFR home sales were by large institutional investors, who are gobbling up residential real estate. That is expected to continue and even grow in 2023, so your competition won’t just be other normal consumers.
Add it all up, and even if prices drop 3%, 5% or 10% in Sacramento in 2023 (which I doubt), these other factors will influence the actual cost you pay for a home (and a mortgage).
My advice to you? Don’t try to overthink it or “time” the market. That doesn’t work in stocks, and it doesn’t work in real estate (for the average person).
Instead, buy when it’s the right time for YOU – including in 2023. There are ALWAYS great deals out there for those willing to put in the time and the work to find them!
I’d love to help you explore those possibilities in 2023, so please reach out to me if you’re thinking of buying in Sacramento!
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