We’re in the midst of a rapidly changing housing market, an inevitable swing from sellers to buyers after more than a decade of hot home price growth and record-low interest rates. However, I'm noticing far too many people mention 2008 and talk about a housing crash, which is not only completely incorrect but adding unnecessary fear and disinformation to our market.
So, I wanted to dispel the doom and gloom with a few points about why this housing correction will be nothing like 2008.
1. US Homeowners are Sitting on a Record Amount of Home Equity
In 2008, the housing market was propped-up by 100% financing, negative amortization loans, and eager homeowners taking cash out of their properties as often as possible, leaving our collective Loan-to-Value precariously thin.
But these days, US homeowners actually enjoy a record amount of home equity. In fact, for all owner-occupied properties, the total value is now about $41 trillion.
We only owe $12 trillion in mortgages against those owner-occupied properties, which means we have a Loan-to-Value ratio of 29.5%. Not only is that a treasure trove of tappable home equity (whether through a sale, refinance, HELOC, etc.), but it’s the lowest national LTV since 1983!
2. Lending Standards (and Loans) are Conservative.
After the mortgage meltdown and housing crash of 2008, the home loan market was completely revamped in terms of regulation, lending standards, and borrower requirements. Since then, the vast majority of borrowers took out 30-year-fixed loans at or near record-low rates, with the volatile and dangerous option arm, interest only, and short-term adjustable loans gone.
Likewise, down payments became the norm again, so buyers had "skin in the game," and stated income or no-document loans also went away. Not to mention, US consumers now have a record-high average credit score!
Add it all up, and the vast majority of homeowners have safe, stable loans with payments they can afford.
3. Inventory is Really Low.
The value of any commodity is predicated on supply and demand, and the US housing market is still facing a pronounced inventory shortage.
Here in Sacramento, we've gone from 0.96 Months of Supply in September 2021 to 2.20 Months of Supply through September this year. At face value, that may seem like a lot of inventory, but it’s still a paltry number, as “normal” markets usually have about 4-5 months of listing inventory available for buyers to choose from.
So, we still have a pronounced shortage of homes for sale, and many would-be sellers may also get discouraged now by price dips and buyers with all the leverage, choosing to stay put and not put a sign in their front yard.
Low housing inventory – and a near-zero number of foreclosures and short sales like we had in excess post-2008 – will ensure that the asset of housing holds its value.
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