You may have seen a lot of negative news in the housing market lately, with headlines screaming about the lowest sales volume in years, the lowest housing affordability in history (which I seriously doubt), and how prices are dipping.
Well, I’m here to tell you some good news: it doesn’t really matter, and all is going to be alright.
How can I be so confident with this assessment that home buyers actually have a golden opportunity right now (and it’s not the end of the world like the media would have you believe)?
It’s because you marry the house, but you just date the rate.
What does that mean?
It’s a funny little saying that’s popped up on social media lately, especially among disgruntled Realtors or mortgage brokers who suddenly have seen their pipelines dry up.
And as cheesy as the saying may be, it’s also totally true.
With mortgage rates rising at a scary rate over the last year and now approaching 7%, it is accurate that potential homebuyers are facing an affordability crunch. For example, that same mortgage that would have cost you $2,500 per month may be $3,300 now. Ouch!
But it really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things because you’re going to buy a house you love (marry it so to speak) but just date that mortgage rate.
Yes, that mortgage rate is only temporary and probably even short-term, so you're just going to date it in this analogy – be with it for a little while to pass the time until it's time to break up and move on.
Here’s why: the average homeowner refinances approximately every 7-9 years or so, new homebuyers refinance far more, and homebuyers in California tend to refinance the moment rates drop or their homes go up in value.
So, the point is that you're going to find a great home now to purchase – with the added benefit of prices dropping so you get a great deal, as well as fewer bidding wars, better terms, etc.
But your 6.7% rate or 6.5% rate or 7% rate that you get today that seems (and probably is!) too expensive won’t be around for long – you’ll probably dump that rate the moment mortgage rates drop again.
Yes, the home that you love but is a little pricey from a mortgage perspective will be much more comfortable once you refinance, which history shows us is almost always a certainty for home buyers.
You probably won't even have to wait long. With the federal reserve bank's campaign to raise short-term benchmark rates to fight inflation, mortgages are affected, so rates become collateral damage.
But the market has already priced in risk and future rate increases, so as the fed eventually tapers off its campaign to raise rates and inflation cools, we'll likely see mortgage rates fall again. My best guess (and it is just a guess) is that within 18-24 months, you'll probably see great mortgage rates again.
And in the meantime (while you’re living in and enjoying the house you just bought for a great deal), to help make your home loan more affordable, there are tools you can utilize like a 2-1 rate buydown, a seller credit to buy down your rate when you purchase, etc.
Talk to your mortgage broker about those (I can recommend a few great ones if you’d like), but the point is that you want to buy a house now when prices dip and then refinance into a lower rate in the near future.
I hope this helps explain that saying, and if you have any questions at all, please reach out!
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