Right now, we’re dealing with the hangover after a wild party that was pandemic-era housing market and price growth. Sales have stalled, housing inventory is paltry, and the market looks like someone hit the Pause button.
But mark my words, the housing market will be buzzing with increases activity and sales this spring. Here are three reasons why:
1. Affordability returns
One way to think about it is that our market is declining, and home prices are falling. But a more nuanced perspective tells us that hot pandemic-era price growth is correcting. In fact, in the Sacramento region, 40% of home price gains during the pandemic have essentially been erased in the past seven months.
Home price growth is slowing and will continue to do so. Right now, home prices are flat since the same month a year ago, and probably will turn negative once we see November’s complete data.
While smart sellers should be scrambling to list their homes for sale in order to cash in on the mountain of equity they’re sitting on, buyers will get some welcome affordability relief.
If home prices keep dropping up to 1-2% per month, buyers will see the spring as a prime time to get out and find their dream home, but this time with prices that have dropped 10% or more since just a year earlier.
2. Rates have settled
Few people were optimistic about the housing market when rates jumped over 7% a few months ago, pushing affordability out of reach for many and creating a huge psychological barrier to buying. But since then, we’ve seen rates settle nicely, including a couple huge drops. Right now, rates are in the mid-6% range again, and are expected to settle there going into 2023.
While rates in the 6%’s aren’t quite as exciting as record-low rates, stability is key for the housing market. Additionally, there are plenty of strategies to keep mortgage payments low, like utilizing an Adjustable Rate Loan (ARM) or even getting the seller to contribute a credit towards buying down the rate.
The point is that mortgage rates won’t hold buyers back in the springtime, and we’ll all have adjusted to the new normal!
3. Normal seasonal trends
Spring and summer are the busy home buying months for many reasons, including better weather, sellers eager to sell their home and find another before the fall, school schedules, etc. Just about every springtime, we see higher listing inventory and a huge jump in buyer activity. That even held true from 2007-2008, when the market completely imploded; things got busier in the spring.
Right now in Sacramento, sales volume is about 43% lower than pre-pandemic averages and down almost 50% since last year. But we can expect a buzz of activity in the spring of 2023 yet again, as first-time buyers, move-up buyers, and even investors hit the streets (and the internet) looking for great deals – this time with lower prices and no bidding wars or paying far above listing price.
While it’s far different than the (artificially inflated) white-hot pandemic housing market, 2023 will see stability, balance, and a welcome dose of affordability. We’re cautiously optimistic that springtime will be busy again for buyers and sellers in Sacramento!
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Contact me if you’d like to get your home ready to sell by spring or just want to get a jump on the competition!
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